article by John Hollinger
Has a No. 1 seed ever been an underdog in the first round?
Not yet, but maybe soon. If the Lakers draw San Antonio in the first round, which could happen, one would be hard pressed to come up with a good reason to endorse them after the shellacking the Spurs handed them Sunday. Mind you, San Antonio's dominating effort -- the second time it has thumped the Lakers this season -- came despite playing the second half without either of its point guards.
We've written off the Spurs on multiple occasions during the course of this season, and apparently we've been wrong every time. San Antonio is 16-6 since embarrassing back-to-back losses against Philadelphia and Detroit, and has done it against a brutal stretch of schedule that featured 11 games against likely 50-win teams.
The past six games have been particularly impressive. Or rather, five of them -- the other was a loss to New Jersey. Ugh. But make a list of the league's top contenders. Cleveland, Orlando, the Lakers and Boston definitely would be on the short list. In fact, those were by far the league's most powerful teams a year ago and thought by most to be the top four entering this season.
So the fact that the Spurs beat all four of them in the past week and beat three of them convincingly warrants our attention.
In fact, the Spurs now are the No. 1 team in the West in Monday's Power Rankings, moving past Utah after the Jazz slipped Friday night in L.A. Thanks to the 19-point win over L.A., the Spurs joined Utah in passing the Lakers in the scoring margin category; over the past quarter of their schedule, the Spurs are a scintillating plus-8.6 despite playing the league's third-hardest schedule in that span. (Incidentally, the Spurs aren't the only potential first-round opponent to outrank L.A. -- Portland also moved ahead of it in the Power Rankings this weekend.)
Of course, I should have listened more to the Power Rankings the whole time. They had the Spurs consistently rated in the league's top eight even as the rest of us dismissed their title hopes and made snide remarks about their record against winning teams.
That perception has changed almost overnight, and as our J.A. Adande points out, Manu Ginobili has been a huge reason why. Want to know how good Ginobili has been of late? He's moved up to ninth in the league in the Player Efficiency Ratings, ahead of Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. He's 32 and brittle, but the past two months have been the best stretch of his entire career.
In fact, only two players on Western Conference playoff teams outrank Ginobili -- and only one of them, Kevin Durant, isn't a Spur. The other is Tim Duncan, who is still fifth despite battling sore knees. That said, it appears the season is wearing out Duncan -- if you look at his splits, his numbers have steadily declined each month. Yet he felt spry enough to register 24 points and 11 rebounds against L.A., and if he's a second banana to Ginobili, that's a pretty darned good Plan B.
San Antonio's secondary players also have picked it up, particularly Richard Jefferson and George Hill. Jefferson shot 54.5 percent in March and seems to be picking his spots much better, while Hill erupted for 16.5 points per game on 50.5 percent shooting in the month after replacing Tony Parker at the point. Matt Bonner has been lighting it up, too, making up for a disappointing stretch from Antonio McDyess.
Ginobili is about to take on an even bigger role during the crucial push for seeding this week. He's likely to split the point guard duties with Roger Mason (D-League call-ups Garrett Temple and Curtis Jerrells also could see time) until Parker returns, which isn't expected to happen until at least April 12 and might not occur until the first game of the playoffs. Similarly, Hill's return date is an open question after what looked like a bad ankle sprain Sunday.
San Antonio currently has the No. 6 position in the West but conceivably could move into the top four and earn home-court advantage in the first round. The tough remaining schedule could help the Spurs, as they still have games against three teams they're trying to pass: Phoenix, Denver and Dallas.
If they split the first two and beat Dallas, a division championship is still a possibility -- they would own the tiebreaker based on division record. The Playoff Odds gave them only an 8 percent shot at doing so heading into the weekend, but after they beat Orlando and L.A. in succession, that's up to 27.5 percent. It's still unlikely, in other words, but it's on the table.
On the other hand, it's pretty easy to see them losing those three tough road games without a point guard. If so, they'll be heading back to Staples Center for Round 1.
But that's the thing about these Spurs: Almost any outcome seems possible. As spectacularly as they're playing, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the team is built on a shaky foundation. Ginobili's reckless style often leaves him battered and bruised, so there's no telling how long he's going to keep up his recent run of dominance. Duncan has bad knees, Parker has been bothered by a foot problem all season and will have to be reincorporated on the fly during the playoffs, and Hill's ankle adds yet another question mark. Does this sound like a formula for winning four straight series on the road?
All of which means the Spurs are the league's most intriguing team as we head into the final week. On paper, they're playing unbelievably well, and it's high time we took notice. One can make a convincing argument that at full strength, they're the best team in the West, and every bit the equal of Cleveland and Orlando.
The rub is the "at full strength" part. San Antonio hasn't been that way for much of the regular season, and one should retain a healthy skepticism about its ability to be that way through a grueling two-month playoff run.
Sum it all up, and the Spurs are this postseason's ultimate wild card. We've ignored them all season, but as we head into the Western Conference playoffs, the Spurs are the one team to which we should be paying extra attention.
